Marist Poll: Democrats Hold House Edge, Enthusiasm Gap Narrows

Democrats hold an advantage on the congressional ballot, but a new NPR/PBS News/Marist survey shows limits to how large their midterm gains could be. The poll of 1,289 registered voters was conducted Oct. 19-20, with a margin of error of 3.7 percentage points for registered voters and 3.8 points for likely voters.

On the generic congressional ballot, Democrats led by 10 points among registered voters and 8 points among likely voters. In 2018, Democrats held a 7-point advantage and in 2006 a 12-point advantage; in both years they flipped at least 30 House seats. Redistricting following the 2020 Census, plus a round of mid-decade map changes over the past year and a half, has shifted seats in Republicans' direction.

President Trump's job approval stood at 38% among registered voters and 40% among likely voters. His favorability among likely voters was 37% favorable and 59% unfavorable. Across both groups, 53% said they strongly disapprove of his performance, tying last month as the highest reading in the poll's history.

Enthusiasm differs by party. Among likely voters, 71% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans said they are very enthusiastic about voting. Democratic groups show softer numbers: 42% of likely voters under 45, 53% of non-white voters and 56% of white women with college degrees reported being very enthusiastic. For comparison, 68% of MAGA voters, 66% of white women without degrees and 61% of white evangelical voters said the same. Among independents, 48% said they are very enthusiastic.

Attention to the race has converged. Last month, 34% of registered Republicans said they were following the election very closely against 42% of Democrats. Now the figures are 46% for Democrats and 45% for Republicans. Among likely voters, 51% of Democrats and 50% of Republicans are paying very close attention.

On election administration, 75% of likely voters said they are confident their state and local governments will run a fair and accurate election: 88% of Democrats, 68% of Republicans and 75% of independents. Asked whether their preferred candidate should accept results, 70% of Republicans said yes, while a quarter said their candidate should probably or definitely challenge them.

Cost of living remains the top issue. A third of respondents said they have experienced financial hardship in the past year, and 38% said their personal finances have gotten worse. Among likely voters, 55% said it matters more to vote for candidates with new ideas who will bring change. Forty-four percent of likely voters said their vote would be against Trump, compared with 21% who said it would be for him.

Democratic likely voters hold an 8-point advantage over Republicans on who cares a great deal about who controls Congress, and those who voted for Kamala Harris in 2024 are 15 points more likely than Trump's 2024 voters to say they are very enthusiastic. Among Democratic likely voters, 98% said they would vote for a Democrat, while 81% thought the Democrat would win.

The survey also asked about data centers: 60% said new data center construction will mostly have a negative impact, and 66% opposed building one in their own community, with 41% strongly opposed.