Neither Israeli Bloc Polls Above 61 Seats as War Continues Into Vote Day

Neither side in Israel's election is polling above the 61 seats needed to control the 120-seat Knesset. Right-leaning pollsters give an edge to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc of right-wing and religious parties. Left-leaning pollsters favor the change bloc that wants him out. Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, said an indecisive outcome is the likeliest result.

Israel has been at war on multiple fronts for three years. The fighting began after the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks by Hamas, which authorities have called the deadliest day for Jews since the state was founded in 1948. Israeli forces are operating in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria. Two rounds of direct conflict with Iran have taken place, and Netanyahu has pushed for a third. The last round against Iran was launched jointly with the United States almost eight months ago.

President Trump endorsed Netanyahu last week and repeated his backing for that campaign. Trump warned he is disinclined to continue it if Netanyahu does not remain in power. "If Israel has the wrong Leader, which would be anyone other than Bibi, America will have to do this work ourselves, and I am not inclined to do so," Trump said. Netanyahu has since argued that only he can work with Trump to keep Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. His campaign slogan reads in Hebrew: "Either right wing or Palestine, either right wing or a nuclear bomb."

Gadi Eisenkot leads the opposing camp. He heads the centrist Yashar party and served as Israel's military chief. He sat in the war cabinet alongside Netanyahu for much of the first year of the Gaza war. He lost his son and two nephews while they served in Gaza. His party list is about half women, compared with a male-dominated Netanyahu coalition. Netanyahu's supporters point to his standing abroad. Restaurant owner Benny Abraham told CBS News, "Bibi can handle the whole world," and added, "He's the king of Israel."

Two numbers could move the result. Arab Israelis make up about 20% of the population, and their turnout has varied in past elections. Plesner said, "The higher the Arab turnout, the less likely that Mr. Netanyahu, within the current coalition, can form another government." Cafe owner Jehad Abomoch, in the Arab city of Baqa al Gharbiya, said the last four years brought a real catastrophe socially and in terms of wars, and that many Arab Israelis feel they have no hope and no future under Netanyahu.

Two new parties sit near the threshold for winning Knesset seats. Both demand that ultra-Orthodox men serve in Israel's mandatory military service, an issue that cuts through Netanyahu's coalition partners. Eisenkot has called for a state inquiry into the intelligence and security failure that preceded Oct. 7, a step Netanyahu has blocked. On Monday he accused Netanyahu of "relying on a campaign of fear-mongering, lies, and threats, including images of nuclear bombs in the heart of Tel Aviv," and said, "This time, it won't work for him."

If no bloc reaches a majority, parties can switch sides or weeks of coalition talks can follow. The change bloc could also seek a minority government with a plurality of the 120 seats, with Arab parties voting for it or abstaining. A stalemate with no coalition would force a new vote. Israel held five elections between 2019 and 2022 under deadlock. Plesner said that if politicians hold to their campaign promises and refuse to trade sides, "we will roll into another election," adding, "I'm sure that most politicians are not interested in that." The vote takes place Tuesday.

Uzi Aharoni, a 73-year-old engineer from Tel Aviv, told CBS News he sees Eisenkot as the only real alternative. "Eisenkot is not left, he's not right. He's straight and honest. He's the kind of leader who will take care of us, the people of Israel, and not himself or his corrupt family," Aharoni said.